What Would A Gun Ban Do? What It Has Done Before

This post started with an inquiry, “Since guns are rearely used in self defense but only violence, how much harm would a gun ban do?”

The historians aphorism that “History does nto repeat itself but the verses rhyme,” indicating similar actions provide similar results is true. While the results of an American gun ban would be a bit different than the U.K.’s gun ban, this chart of police reported violent crime numbers would be surprisingly close to the results of an American gun ban.

As you can see, rifles and handguns were banned and shotgun ownership severely limited after the Dunblane Elementary School massacre. The law contained a grace period, and it was not fully in effect until late 1998, with the first results showing up in 1999:

After the ban was fully in force, British police reported a very sharp increase in “violent acts,” which we would describe as violent crimes. This continued until 2005, when Members of Parliament began complaining of the radically different numbers reported by the U.K. police and the British Crime Survey, an independent survey much like the Bureau of Justice Statistics crime Victimization survey.

Some leveling off in the police reported violent crime rate was expected but the gap between the BCS and the Office of National Statistics police reported number of violent acts continued to wide.

As a result, the British Crime Survey was discontinued, and a substitue with the same name is being issued by the Ofice of National Statistics.

Tje 2017 numbers are here, but the comments below apply:

The 2015 full year police reported number was 2800 vilent acts per 100,000 population [28 per 1,000] and still rising.

Curiously, if you go to the ONSS 2015 Crime and Justice page and start cranking, you will pass a chart showing crime in England and Wales is down,

Keep scrolling. About the time you will begin wishing for a power assisted mous, yoiu will come to a table showigng the violent acts at 28 per 1,000 population. And if you keep on cranking you will come to this chart, which shows violent crime is up by 27%, and that in fact, all major categories of crime are up.

Now, having sharp increases in every major category of crime, yet reporting lower crime numbers is a really good trick, if you can get away with it.

The ONS report that crime is down reflects the data they get. Reports from the UK have it that the sorely pressed police, with crime soaring and budgets cut, have attempted to mollify those who hold the purse strings by removing crime reports deemed “not credible,” often without any effort to make an inquiry.

Reports I have heard have it that the UK’s violent acts rate is now in excess of 3,000 per 100,000 populaiton. But I cannot confirm that.

Officially, the UK’s violent acts rate has gone from 450 per 100,000 to 2,700 per 100,000 population in 19 years of gun ban. Compare

And where does the UK underworld get their guns if there are notn to steal? That is the subject for another post.

It will be along shortly.


About Stranger

Extranos Alley is a Collaborate effort to provide up to information on the relationship between restrictive gun laws and violent crime; as well as other related topics. While emphasis is on United States gun laws and crime, we also provide data on crime trends world wide.
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