Someone stopped by searching for “odds next gun contrl law will fail.”
At a risk of sounding like Willie Clinton, that depens on the severity of the law and the rigor of enforcement, both unpredictable, as well as cultural, demographic, and economic issues.
For modeling purposes it makes life much simpler if you can use an existing econmic model and let someone else do the data gatehring for you, with the assumption the law will be enforced to the maximum extent possible.
Further, it is important to give the restrictive gun laws all the breaks possible; such as assuming the law will be enforced to the max, and so on. After you get your sample and the “stipulations” set, it is time to choose what your “assumptions” are.
Using the worst case the “coing flip” modeling program, which assumes an equal chance of coming up heads, or a successful gun law in a run, are most favorable for our purposes.
Using that model, the result of on sample coming up heads is 2/1,or 1 in 2 or 50/50.
If we have 10 such laws or coin flips, or odd faces on a die, the odds are 2/2^10, or 0.5 X 2^10 of 1 chance in 512 “iterations,” or laws.
That holds true up to some number of iterations that gives a result much larger than the maximum possible number of such laws. Now, we are going to cheat slightly here, because the large number calculator runs out of steam long before we get to 2^60,000.
At 19 iterations, or patients taking a new drug, the odds of one successful gun law is 1 in 2/2%19 ir 1 successful gun law in 262,144 restrictive gun laws, new medicine samples, 35c.
Some testng labs continue the test series out as far as 500tests, but fo rour purposes the reults become predictive at 20 iterations, the point wehre the results give “six sigma” confidence levels in the results. At 20 iterations, the odds are 1 in 1 1 048 576 trials.
At 30 trials, the odds against finding a successful law are 1 in 1 073 741 824.
40 iterations results in 1 in 1 099 511 627 776
50 laws or trials, result in 1 chance in 1 125 899 906 842
100 laws result result in 1 chance in 1 267 650 600 228 229 401 496 703 205 376
But we do not have just 100 trials of restrictive gun laws. We had 57,763 restrictive gun laws that have been imposed since 1495.
1 267 650 600 228 229 401 496 703 205 376 is large enough to count the sub-atomic particles in millions of universes the mass of ours – and we have 54,663 more gun laws we have not considered.
And 1 267 650 600 228 229 401 496 703 205 376 is only large enough to describe the odds of finding a failure among 100 permissive gun laws – and we have 476 more such laws to account for.
Obviously, the probability that the next restrictive gun law, and all s the rest until the end of time,, will fail are beyond astronomical. They are for all intents and purposes infinite.
And the same is true of permissive gun laws. The chances that the next permissive gun law, fully enforced and with the results honestly reported, will succeed ar so great that for all intents and purposes they are infinite.