Texas: The Cost Of Gun Control

Our next State in the “Cost of Gun Control” is the Lone StarState, Texas .

And to get the show on the road, I have always hated trying to find a source for something, so the fine print is up here. And starting with the fact that all data not separately sourced i is from the FBI Uniform Crime report most conveniently found at this link.

For those who are not familiar with the series, The primary purposes of this series is to first, to raise the overall cost of gun control in lives lost, personal and property damage, extra security, prisons, and so on. The secondary purpose is to establish as many points of identity between gun control legislation in the 50 United States and the District of Columbia.

At present, we have determined enough points of similarity to establish the probability that the perceived pattern of a sharp increase in crime and violence following a gun control campaign or law is greater than 15*10^8550 a number far beyond human experience.

Economically, Texas is in 22nd plance among the States with a mean familly income of $53.000 a year and a mean individual income of $51.51,500, a year. However, there are wides[read areas pf abject ppverty, including large parts of Texas ‘s most violent city, Memphis.

The addition of thousands of tne jobs, both from the petrolium industry and from manufacturing, have made Texas a popular desitination State for those looking for a better life.

Unfortunately, a relaatively high percentage of the people have dropped out of the labor force and work at whatever job thy can find, the more skilled among them managaging to keep their economic heads above water.

Demographically, the Palmetto State’s population consists of 87.31% low crime population groups, and 12.7% higher crime rate minorities.

Texas requires a “License To Carry” a handgun cconcealed, or any firearm openly, The State has preempted local gun laws, and does have a “peaceable caarry” statute. Texas is a Castle Doctrine and Stand Your Grund State, so you need not get in shape to run marathins when you cross the State line. And finally, what is not forbidden is permitted, so if is not on this list it is almost certainly lawful. Of course, that may change tomorrow so check with local authority.

In short, Texas ‘s gun laws could stand some modification in accordance with the results of Constitutional carry laws, but are good enough to hae kep the crime rates comparatively low despite economic problems.

Of course, another million or so jobs would help as well.

For the next to final bit of fine print, because there seems no other good place to put it, in 1960 Texas Law Enforcement Agencies (LEA’s) reporte 824 homicides of which 345 or 41% were firearms related.

In 2016 Texas LEA’s reported 1.478 murder, 630 of those or 57.4% were firearms related, an increase due to the easy avaailability and low price of stolen “street guns:” demonstrating the gact gun control campaigns and gun control laws drive the degree firearms are involved in crime up, sometimes as much as double the percentage of involvement.

With tht, it is time to turn to look at the history of crime and gun contol in Texas after 1960. As usual, we invite you to verify our numbers either with the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report,availabele as some police headquarters, or the very convenient spreadsheet maintained by the Disaster Center.

1960 saw Texas ‘s LEA’s report 3,250 violent crimes in a population 9,780,000 population, for a viooent crime rate of just 161 [er 100.000,

1962: The entertainment industry, was faced wtih the possibility of being forced to resshoot or scrap programming “already in the can” and generating revenue from reruns Faced with a minimum cost of $50,000,000 for a reshoot, and financial disaster if they were forced to show those films overseas, the industry searched for a diversion.

In November of 1963, the probable mob hit that killed President John F. Kennedy by a New Orleans drifter armed with a mail order rifle must have seemed heaven sent.
Within days, the calls for a ban on on mail order guns turned into a call for forced confiscation of all guns – and a total of 17.511 violent crimes reported to the FBI from Texas .

1964, the first full year of Hollywood’s gun ban campaign, saw the Lone Star State’s LEA’s report 19.769 violent crimes to the FBI,

1968: the fifth full year of Hollywood’s gun ban campaign and a half hundred State and local laws to “Do what Congress will not” ad driven the violent crime to total to 29.649 violent crimes to the FBI. Congress did act in 1963, imposing the Federal Gun Control Act of 1968, which put gun gun and ammunition purchaser registration into effect for the first time, and initiated other restrictions, including banning mail order firearms purchases. GCA’68 was in effect only a few days that year.

1969, the first full year of Federal gun control on top of State and local laws, Texas LEA’s reported a total 36,707 violent crimes among Texas baaalooning population, whecn had risne to 10,.972,0001973 was the fifth full year of Federal gun controls, including ammunition purchaser registration, saw Texas LEA’s reported 36,707 violent crimes to the FBI, resulting in a violent crime rate of 328.1 per 100,000 population.

As yooou can see, reported crime in the well Texas ‘s violent crime rate continued to rise, reaching a maximum of 145,447 violent crimes reported to the FBI in 1993 at the height of Handgun Control, Inc.’s “Assault Weapons Ban Campaign.

The shock of Congress passing a greattlly despised gun ban, and seeing an American President sign that bill into law, served as a wakeup call to many Texans, who changed their gun buying habits from Winchester Model 70’s to AR-15’s and other Sport utility and defensive weapons. The result was suppression of all types of crime rates.

Until 2013, when a new and well funded gun ban campaign began, documented here by the red bars on the violent crime and homiccide rate charts.

7, under the influence of the “Assault Weapons Ban” campaign, and a reneal of a gun control drive as gun banners concluded that background checks would not eliminate crime.

After 1993. the sharply increased risk of encountering an armed victim with possibly fatal results served to suppress all forms of violent crime. The skyrocketing population to some extent offset the decrease on crime rates, but it does not take long to discover the truth.

Relaxing Texas overlly restrictive gun laws cut violent crime rates to a post 1910 lw – until the “Every town hates guns” bunch started a gun ban drive and undid a lot of hard work.

For 20156, Texas law enforcment Agencies reported 27,863,000 Texans reported a total of 124,942 violent crimes to their police, for a violent crime rate of 412.2 [rt 100,000 population, only slightly higher than the national rate.

As you can see from the chart above, Texas ‘s crime rates followed the theroretical crime rates up to 1994. Since there was no great rush to stock up on defensive weapons – a shotgun from inside the house is about as effectrive defensive weapon as you cangeet, the violent crime rate did not show the tremendous decline seen in most States,, instead slowly declining as provately held guns suppressed any desire from potential criminals to pursue that lifestyle.

Turning to the mohicide rate, wwwe sssee something else entirely. The effects of very low crime numbers on crime rates.

For the full pucture, click on the link in the second paragraph of this post, Hitting the high spots, in 1960,, Texas had a total of 14 homicides and a population of 687,000. 14 divided by the population in 100,00’s, 6.84 resulted in 14/5.84_2.1 or the exemplary homicide rate of 2.1 per 00,000 population.

Obvously, small changes in crime numbers can make large changes in the crime rates when populations are relatively small. The result is something statisticians call “noise,” which makes percieving te long term trend with more restrictive gun laws harder to see.

But once again, gun control acted exactly s the historical record of failure of such laws predicted:

The probability than ten categories of violent crime would rise and fall in lockstep are small. When the lockstep involves more than 30 States, small becomes less than infinitesimal: approximately 15*10^830, a number so large that online big number calculators choke.

Clearly then, there is a strong causative relationship between crime and gun control.

And since “everything has a price,” gun contorl definitely has a price.

The charts above, and the linked data sets, cover ten categories of crime and more than thirty States. Given the enormous range of laws, restrictions, and economic and demographic conditions along with the severity of enforcement of the gun laws, the probability the probability that so many crime rates would rise and fall in lockstep are grater taajam 15*10^800, a number too large to calculate with online tools,and too long to post. Given that, for this post, the probability that this pattern of a sharp increase in crime after a gun control campaign or law is essentially infinite, against.

And with that, just what is the dollar cost the good people of Texas have paid for gun control campaigns and restrictive gun laws?

I cannot calculate the real cost of excess murders or the cost of thousands of man years in prison on counterproductive gun charges, the cost of grief, loneliness,the cost of being orphaned, the cost of a disability, of lost wages, or the many other costs inherent in any factor that causes a sharp rise in criminal violence.

I can consider the cost of an each excess homicide at the median cost of a wrongful death settlement at $2,200,000; the cost of medical care for each shooting victim, the cost of of nursing care for those disabled, the cost of goods destroyed, damaged,or stolen, the cost of extra sstore and transportation security, law enforcement, and prisons.

That $625,650,000,000 spread over 52 years.

Obviously, a half billion a year for 54 years is a terrible price for any State to pay.

It is time for Congress to preempt all restrictive State and local gun laws,. imposing a reasonable penalty on individuals who attempt to enforce preempted laws, or craft new laws to circumvent the restrictive gun laws that have driven crime rates “over the moon.

Stranger

About Stranger

A collaborative effort, Extranos Alley is primarily concerned with providing up to date data on the relationships between privately woned firearms and crime, violence, and politics. The site is maintained by nine volunteers who have given up their identity that the work here may be considered without regard to the individual data. The contributors are a diverse group, ranging from a retired physicist to a board certified psychologist.
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