Philadelphia originally got on the watch list because then Mayor Nutter tried to enforce preempted ordinances. Since then, Philadelphia has served as a math checking our murder total estimate against reality.
Frankly, we have done better. our estimate of first half 2017 homicies was 136 homicides for the first 182 days of 2017 was was short by 19.
Apparently we failed to estimate some increased drug activity, and Bloomberg’s Banners have been working the area.
The recalculated full year total is no estimated at 326 homicides, and a rate of 27.5 per 100,000 population. Check back next January if our “Kentucky windage” resulted in a more accurate calculation.