Actually, Gun Control Should Start With History

Consideration ony proposal should begin with the history if similar propositions, starting with “what did it cost and what were the results.” To fail to investige costs and benefits leaves the public on the hook for enormously expensive projects that would be no more useful than building a dam lengthwise down the main channel of the Columbia River.

But the Oregonia’s who does not care about cost of efficacy, we must have gun control.

Well, here is the history of modern gun controls in oregon, with the red bars marking the result of Bloomberg’s “Everytown agaisnt guns” campaign:

Amd tjem tjere os tje price Oregonians have paid, in blood and treasure, since a campaign to ban guns hit in December 1963. From that5 date to January 1, 2016,and calculating from Oregon State daa, Oregonians paid a staggering $69,825,000,000, spread over 54 years.

While that cost was initially fairly small, the current estimated cost to each of the 4,100,000 Oregonians is $975 every Oregon resident, or $2560 for a family of three.

Obviously, almost 1,000 a resident for gun control laws that only drive crime rates up is far beyond anything the people of Oregon should be required to bear.

But of course, the there is no use in telling the Oregonian that. Like their correspondent, they believe in the fallacy that guns cause crime so guns must be kept from the hands of the general public.


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Al “Bozo” Franken Accused of Misconduct

I see former TV unfunny man and currently Minnesota Senator Al Franken has been accused of making unseemly demands and touching women without permission.

There is really nothing new there just a pattern of behavior that got some talk radio attention in years past. Now that his past has caught up with him, Franken should, in all decency, resign.


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What’s Wrong With “Fixing Background Checks?”

I have covered this several times, so this is “repetitive content.” But someone sotpped by searching for “problem with background checks.”

Several things, including the fact the “Progressive Left” wants to stop banks from doing criminal background checks on prospective bank tellers, Police Officers, and stockbrokers, – but force every transfer of ownership of a firearm to entail a background check on both buyer and seller.

Given that prison surveys show less than one percent of prisoners convicted of a gun crime has ever attempted to buy a gun from a legitimate source, a dealer or an individual, and the criminal underworld is estimated to possess more than 20 million stolen guns, 2.7% of all the guns in private possession in the United States, that position lacks any sort of logic.

Further, while we only have data from 50 States and the District of Columbia, it is sufficient to show background checks are aaat best neutral, and probably harmful.

The U.S. NICS background check system began operating on November 30, 1998. The United States had just enjoyed a dramatic and unprecedented decline in violent crime and homicide, for reasons discussed elsewhere. Over 50States, the inception of background coincided with a sharp reduction in the rate of decline in criminal activity.

And there is worse linked to the inception of the background check system. The rate at which criminals used guns to facilitate crime had been plummeting, and that to slowed dramatically. This chart, taken from the Bureau of Justice Statistics Criminal Victimization 2015 survey shows how criminal use of guns declined far more slowly after the inception of the criminal background check system:

Clearly, criminal background checks for gun buyers are not particularly effective in reducing crime, and can be summed up as “big cost, small benefit.”

But there is worse yet. One of the stated goals of background check enthusiasts is to crate a registry of gun owners who buy guns from individuals instead of Federally licensed dealers. There are already two such lists of American gun owners in existence, the millions of ATF Form 4473’s which gun buyers have to fill out for the dealer, and the list of names gathered by the FBI’s National Criminal Background Check System. Now, the government wants a thrid such list, of those who buy a gun from a friend or inherit it.

During the 20th Century, whch ran from 19901 through 2000, lists of lists of registered gun owners have been a critical part of various “democideal campaigns’ that took the lives of millions of innocent people, slaughtered by their own government.

At latest count, gun owner registration has cost the lives of more than 305 million innocents, including 265 million victims of democide.

And now our masters in Washington want to compile a list of gun owners, not just gun buyers.

Obviously, since background checks are at best of doubtful falue, that is a dubious proposition. But since the lists of gun owners and former gun owners Universal Background Check advocates would inmpose have a history of unmitigated eivel, that makes the suggestion evil and tars its supporters with the same evil as the laws they support.


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The Senate’s Worst Intro’s Gun “Control” Bill

Connecticut’s has introduced a major gun control bill that would make Federal gun control laws an administrative issue, set by some entry level bureaucrat.

Murphy has quite a record, both in Congress and at the State levl. He seems unable to realize that his unsupported opinion and the facts are two entirely different things. Which accounts for his opinion that gun bans save lives, despite hundreds of thousands of pages of evidence to the contrary. And the fact that every successful gun control law or ffiat in history is listed on the next line.

This line.

Clearly both Murphy and his “bipartisan bill,” along with all its co-signers, need to spend 2019 on K street, lobbying their former colleges to build high speed highways lengthwise over major waterways,.


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17 November Hurricane Watch

There is a low pressure system in the central Caribbean that is given a 20 percent chance of developing into a system in the next 48 hours. No direction of movement is given, but Haiti, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba seem to be the most likely targets should the low become a system. I will keep an eye on the low and report developments.

Otherwise there sees to be no other tropical development.


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“Ban Guns” he Says, Without Looking At History

Splinter News Alex Pareene says ‘ban guns.’

I doubt the ban advocate has bothered to spend as much as five researching the results of the measures he advocates, but there he is, “Band Guns.” The despite the every gun ban edict has resulted in sky high crime rates. As in Venezuela, where priests say they bury more than 60,000 murder victims a year, out of a population of just 28 million. Ar Sao Paolo, where only the very rich can afford the bribes to buy a gun, and 12 million people bury about 15,000 murder victims a year. Or Mexico, with only one gun dealer in the country, and 119 million people bury 26,000 known murder victims a year, and another 30,000 “disappear” into clandestine burial sites.

I could go on like that for days, although I cannot cite the almost 57.800 restrictive gun laws from memory. Nor, on the other side of that coin, can I cite all the permissive gun laws that have suppressed murder, violent crime, and crime.

The numbers are easy to find, and when the subject is crime rates, larger is obviously worse. Anyone who will look at the crime numbers, be it for the United States, Canada, the U.K. France, Germany, Poland, The Russian Federation, Mongolia, Japan, Mexico, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Barbados, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Macedonia, Greece, Turkey , Georgia, China, Nicaragua, Morocco, Algeria, Tripoli, Libya, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, or any other nation on the face of the earth, restrictive gun laws sent violent crime rates soaring and permissive gun laws suppressed crime. But Alex Pareene says ban guns.

And instead of looking at the results, easily seen in the the FBI Uniform Crime Reports, the Bureau of Justice Statistics Criminal Victimization surveys, and the official statistics from Candada’s StatsCanada’s crime statistics, the U.K.s Office of National Statistics, Germany’s Bundeskriminallamt, Australia’s Institute of Criminology, and the rest of the national statistical reporting organizations.

Instead, Alex Pareene his single note, ban guns, ban guns, ban guns, over and over, without consideration for the tragic results of past gun bans, and the degree to which relaxed gun laws have suppressed crime.

Alex Pareene would rather live in Chicago, where 50 in every 100,000 people will be mrudered this year and there is not a single gun shop, than in El paso, where there is a gun shop on every corner, and only 2.5 of every 100,000 people are murdered. Some by gunfire from Mexico.

But Alex Pareene’s mind is made up, and all the tea in China, boxed and baked and set down on is apartment hose roof will change his mind. No matter how much crime guns suppress, and how many lives guns save, guns must die.

and if that is a fair example of Splinter news, I have no great expectation for its success.



Detective Murdered In Baltimore, 318 on the year

In 2012, the last per 100,000 population.

year before former governor Martin “gun ban” O’Malley rammed his gun ban thorgh the legislature, reported 217 homicides, for the entire year.

Today, a Baltimore police detective, an 18 year veteran with five children died after being shot in the head. That brings Baltimore’s 2017 total to the 2012 total of 217 – plus 101 for a running total of 318 so far in 2017.

This is day 320, and if 2017 follows the usual monthly murder pattern, Baltimore will have a murder a day this year, compared to 217 just 5 years ago.

When I predicted O’Malley’s gun ban would cost lives I knew Baltimore and other Maryland cities would see higher homicide rates this year. While I did not expect a 70 percent increase for 217, and I did nto expet a rise in the homicide rate from 35 per 100,000 to 59 per 100,000 population.

Maryland has already paid a terrible price for O’Malley’s irrational hatred of the most law abiding demographic of American society.

The situation in Baltimore and other Maryland cities will not get better until the laws that triggered this the increase in
murder and violent crime, and the replacement of “may issue” Licenses to Carry with “must issue: LTC’s.

In brief, until the laws that have driven both Baltimore and Maryland’s crime rates into the sky are replaced with laws that have historically suppressed crime.


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Report On Latest CA Mass Killer

Kevin Neal, the perpetrator in the Rancho Tehama rampage shooting was under indictment for aggravated assault, and under California law could not touch a gun.

According to media reports from the area, over the lasts several months Neal had been firing off r bursts of gun fire, some last for 100 rounds, at random times day and night. Thes resulted in a dispute with neighbors, an aggravated assault charge, and evidently the neigbor’s deaths, as well as his wife and one other person before Neal was killed by law enforcement.

Lola media hints at “treatment” for Neal, other media ignores it, and in reality there has been no credible confrimaation or denial.

Authorities believe Neal obtained the murder weapon illegally, or perhaps built his own form parts.

Considering that every lower receiver sold in the U.S. must have a serial number tracerable to the buyer, a build your own that could not be traced would almost certainly mean mean machining out a blank; or machining a block of raw aluminum so that seems extremely unlikely.

Neal began his murder spree by killing his wife, and then the next morning killing two neighbors, before leaving his residence. Neal reportedly fired at several people on his way to the school, where he fired at the school wounding two students, one very seriously.

Neal killed his wife, two neighbors, and one other person before he was killed by law enforcement.

And that seems to be the story to this date.



What Are The Odds That The Next Gun Control Law Will Fail

Someone stopped by searching for “odds next gun contrl law will fail.”

At a risk of sounding like Willie Clinton, that depens on the severity of the law and the rigor of enforcement, both unpredictable, as well as cultural, demographic, and economic issues.

For modeling purposes it makes life much simpler if you can use an existing econmic model and let someone else do the data gatehring for you, with the assumption the law will be enforced to the maximum extent possible.

Further, it is important to give the restrictive gun laws all the breaks possible; such as assuming the law will be enforced to the max, and so on. After you get your sample and the “stipulations” set, it is time to choose what your “assumptions” are.

Using the worst case the “coing flip” modeling program, which assumes an equal chance of coming up heads, or a successful gun law in a run, are most favorable for our purposes.

Using that model, the result of on sample coming up heads is 2/1,or 1 in 2 or 50/50.

If we have 10 such laws or coin flips, or odd faces on a die, the odds are 2/2^10, or 0.5 X 2^10 of 1 chance in 512 “iterations,” or laws.

That holds true up to some number of iterations that gives a result much larger than the maximum possible number of such laws. Now, we are going to cheat slightly here, because the large number calculator runs out of steam long before we get to 2^60,000.

At 19 iterations, or patients taking a new drug, the odds of one successful gun law is 1 in 2/2%19 ir 1 successful gun law in 262,144 restrictive gun laws, new medicine samples, 35c.

Some testng labs continue the test series out as far as 500tests, but fo rour purposes the reults become predictive at 20 iterations, the point wehre the results give “six sigma” confidence levels in the results. At 20 iterations, the odds are 1 in 1 1 048 576 trials.

At 30 trials, the odds against finding a successful law are 1 in 1 073 741 824.

40 iterations results in 1 in 1 099 511 627 776

50 laws or trials, result in 1 chance in 1 125 899 906 842

100 laws result result in 1 chance in 1 267 650 600 228 229 401 496 703 205 376

But we do not have just 100 trials of restrictive gun laws. We had 57,763 restrictive gun laws that have been imposed since 1495.

1 267 650 600 228 229 401 496 703 205 376 is large enough to count the sub-atomic particles in millions of universes the mass of ours – and we have 54,663 more gun laws we have not considered.

And 1 267 650 600 228 229 401 496 703 205 376 is only large enough to describe the odds of finding a failure among 100 permissive gun laws – and we have 476 more such laws to account for.

Obviously, the probability that the next restrictive gun law, and all s the rest until the end of time,, will fail are beyond astronomical. They are for all intents and purposes infinite.

And the same is true of permissive gun laws. The chances that the next permissive gun law, fully enforced and with the results honestly reported, will succeed ar so great that for all intents and purposes they are infinite.


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Giffords “Wars Of Dangers From Muzzle Loaders”

The Free Beacon reports Gabby Giffords gun control group has released a ‘report’ warning of the “danger to the public from muzzle loaders.

Gifords and her minions seem to be clawing for a position in the fight against fun ownership, since they seem unable to look at the basic facts about guns.

One of those facts is there is currently no market for any firearm taht will not fire at least 15 rounds without reloading. Wju?

Bcause more than four out of every ten American homicides are due to rivalry between criminal gangs, primarily the “turf wars” for the best street corners to carry on their trade in the drug and flesh trades.

YouTube has dozens of reports on our most serious gun problem, gun trafficking, where the trafficker points out the obvious fact that “After six shots man, you are dead. You don’t have time to relaod. You want a Glock with a 30 round magazine, or a 50 round magazine if you can get one.”

Listen to this trafficker describe what his customers want.

The idea that a gang member would go to war with a two rounds a minute muzzle loader, swabbing don the bore, measuring the poowder, ramming home the ball, and replacing the percussion cap between shots is laughable – and the idea that a gang warrior would willingly shoose a Walke rColt replica is only slightly less ludicrous.

Giffords outfit, whatever it is called, faces tough competition from Bloomberg’s hydra like “Everytown” gun ban group, which operates under at least thirty names across the country.

Like Bloomberg, Grffords cannot point to a successful gun control law,so the only thing she has to sell is fear. And that fear is fading faster than many thingk.


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