Arctic Sea Ice AT 4,681,000 Km2 Above prediction

While I would like to use the 5,110,000 Km2 reading from one of the Arctic sea ice sites, that would break continuity. Our regular source gives Arctic sea ice extent at 4,681,000 Km2, up from 4,649m000 yesterday.

I will resume the regular climate watch in the next few days, but until then the winter freeze began on September 11, two days early, and the trend seems to be up at a respectable rate.


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More Rioting In St. Louis: 80 Arrested

Fpx Mews reports there was more rioting in St. Loouis last night with a total of 80 arrested.

Riots have gotten so common that the only thing left that would be news is the name of the person funding the violence organizing group behind the action.


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Now The Drive For Safety Will Hinder Cops

It is getting easier to tell the sheep from the goats on the gun issues. Bloomberg’s bunch of ban propagandists refer to sound suppressors as “sliencers,” while the few media outlets who are neutral or pro-gun refer to suppressors by their proper name. Sound suppressors.

Minneaapolis is one of the cities using the Shot Spotter acoustic triangulation system and of course “silencers” would render Shot Spotters useless. However, a practical accessory silencer would be quite large, and suppressors that cut peak sound energy by only forty percent or so.

As a result, suppressor equipped firearms are practical oat shooting ranges, where many hundreds of shots amy be fired during a practice session. They have been used, particularly in pre-EU Europe for pest control operations. But carrying around a pistol and suppressor combination like this?

That would cut the range of a Shot Spotter by perhaps a quarter, but carrying something that bulky is quite impractical. Something Shot Spotter should be aware or.

Of course, using ‘silencer’ demonizes both the noise reducing firearms accessory, and those who wish to make sound suppressors more readily available to the average shooter have not hesitated to smear suppressors with the fictional “silencer” label, and to distort the effect of suppressors on police work.

In all of the history of suppressors, which emerged in the late 19th Century, there is no record of criminal use of sound suppressors. One need only look at a suppressor, and consider the difficulty in concealing a suppressed gun to see why.

Yet, briefllly quoting the City Pages item linked above:

According to a statement from ShotSpotter CEO Ralph Clark, the technology has been able to detect suppressed gunfire in the past. However, it’s not clear how consistently ShotSpotter is successful.

“Although we have not formally tested the theoretical impact to our system, we intend to do some targeted testing in the near future,” Clark said. “We believe we will have various options, ranging from increasing our sensor array density to developing software/firmware, to address the dectection of suppressed gunfire if it were to become a widespread issue.”

Shot Spotter has not even done a back of envelope calculation of the result of cutting handgun muzzle blast from 140 dB at the shooters ear to 110 dB at the shooters ear. With suppressor owners generally more than willing to fire a few rounds in the interest of science, ShotSpotter has not eve tried to determine what, if any, effect muzzle blast reduction would have on theeir product,

And yet here is ShotSpotter repeating statements apparently taken from Bloomberg’s Everytown Against Guns propaganda mill.

Whining about whoat might be instead of what is has gotten the Minneapolis PD no credit whatsoever, ShotSpotter has marked itsself as a maker of unsupported statements – and City Pages has failed to do a simple background check on a story.

What an unmitigated debacle.



Report: Rolling Stone On The Market


The New York Times reports Rolling Stone, which my kids grabbed as soon as it hit the shelves to keep upp with Rush, and Sly and the Family Stone is up for sale and other shouters of the 1970’s, is up for sale.

Rolling Stone was a pioneer in genre publishing, but latelly has lost a major lawsuit, and is reportedly facing several more. The reported sale is not surprising, considering recent history.

IF THIS REPORT IS TRUE, I think the sale of Rolling Stone will be just the first of a long procession of publications that will have succumbed to the public’s insistence that the story not only be interesting, that it be true and published without malice.

the New York Times itself may very well be the sssecond member fo that band.


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The Source And Cost Of Crime Guns?

Overnight someone stopped by searching for “source & cost crime guns.”

The common definition of a “crime gun” is a gun used to facilitate a violent crime crime of some sort. The source and cost range from a gun stolen and therefore acquired at no cost by a criminal to a gun purchased at retail, paying full price.

Om general, the most common source of crime guns is theft, either by the criminal, who uses it to facilitate crime, or by a thief who sells it to a gun trafficker. The trafficker typically pays in drugs which he or she can buy relatively cheaply, moves them to a city where they can be sold at a very high profit.

A typical stolen “street gun” will bring a thief four to six “dime rocks of crack” cocaine, which cost the dealer perhaps $20.00,and if no immediate disposal is made pass them on to a supplier for perhaps ten “rocks<' making a nice profit when the drugs are sold. Ultimately, the stolen gun will be sold to some distant criminal either to enforce either for some gang related activity such as killing those trying to grab a desirable corner, or to facilitate crimes. Pricing for a "street gun" ranges heard a "police caliber" handgun fully loaded will cost a new York City thug as much as $175, while in many cities the going price for a street gun is as low as $1125. At the other end of the scale, various forms of "domestic violence4" often involve legalllly purchased firearms. While the number and percentage of using a %600 to $1500 gun to tell the daughter's boyfriend to go back out the window and never come back seems excessive, sometimes that is what it takes. Stranger

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Sharing The Folly On Gun Control

Burger King, no, Fits News, has an honest appraisal of the folly of trying to control criminal predation with laws only the law abiding will obey.

Click on over, it is worth the read, but be warned, the po-ps are intrusive. The Alley will be here when you click back.


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18 September Hurricane Watch

We still have three Atlantic Systems, with Jose the nearest.

Hose is about halfway between Charleston, South Carolina and Bermuda,presently tracking north at at 9 MPH. Winds have increased to 90PH sustained but the forecasters have Jose taking a right turn away from the U.S. in the next few days. Despite the forecast, this one bears watching.

Hurricane Maria is approaching the Leewards on a course that will take it over PPuerto Rico by the weekend. Currently, maximum sustained winds are at 990 MPH and movement is west by north at 13 MPH. Maria is forecast to turn northward, and miss the U.S.

And Tropical depression Lee is almost due west of the Cape Verdes, movement is northwest at ten, forecast to beccome north by west over the next few days.

On the Pacific side Hurricane Otis is far off Mexican coast, and evidently has a desire to visit beautiful New Zealand.

Tropical Storm Norma is Off Baha, northbound, and looks as if it might bring rain to Tijuana next week.

And that seems to be the day’s Western Hemisphere tropical activity.


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Very Nice: A Media Item Supporting Suppressors

Adam Benson, writing at Inex-Journal of Greenwood, South Carolinaand accurate item on sound suppressors.

Click on over, be informed. The Alley will be here when you get back.

My only quibble is the mention of noise cancellling headphones. They are not really up to the job of pretecting something you have and cannot get back if you lose it, your hearing.

Back when, it was accepted that a sound with more than 130 DeciBels of intensity could damage your hearing, and repeated exposure to such a sound WILL damage your hearing. Which would make you just like Cauliflower McPug and I, hearing bells and whistles.

The modern recommended maximum is 110 DeciBels, or Db to avoid long term exposure damage.

Now, I know that very few Alley readers know what a deciBel is, and I am not going to explain it.

What I will say is that a typical big game rifle will produce a crack at the shooters ear of 140 to 170 dB. A set of noise canceellers is barelly adequate for 30/30 class rifles, and completelyi inadequate for .279 WCF, 30/06, or more powerful rifles. A typical st of noisssssse cancelling ‘phones will provide 22 to 25 dB of sound suppression. Leaving you the shooter over the danger line of 110 dB.

If you are going to use noise canceller to tame the noisey beast, back them up with ear plugs. That will et you up to 30 dB of sound pressure reduciton. Which is what you want when it comes to possibly blowing out your eardrums.

A good suppressor will get the sound pressure down 40 dB, very safe by 1950 standards, a bit stout by 2015 standards.

Sp me add a few words while the burger is grilling:

1 dB is the smallest sound a person with normal hearing can identify more than 5o percent of the time. The sound pressure is about that needed to move an oxygen atom one half of its diameter, which is not much.

10 dB is ten times the sooound pressure,

10 dB is 100 times the sound pressure of 1 dB..

30 dB is 1,000 times the sound pressure of 1 dB.

Now, since I am sure gunnies get it, that add 130 dB to that little 1 watt light you use to keep from barking your shins in the dark – and you would be close to the power output of every generating plant on Earth.

Because 100 DB is 10,000,000,000, ten billion times the power of the reference 1 dB.

If a 1 dB sound will move an oxygen atom half its own width, 130 db would move that same atom by 500,000,000,000,000 times its own width. And 140 ddB would move it ten times that far, 150 dB 100 times that far, and so on.

110 dB is not easy on ears, but they are designed to take that much sound pressure. And to take 130 dB a few times a year without damage. Above that it was tinnitus, loss of thee octaves of highs, and decreased acuity.

Which gives me a good excuse to ignore the grandkids. But you will be a lot better off with full ability to hear.


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Why Do WE Emphasize Mental Health Issues

Someone in Nappppoleon, Ohio, asks why “we put so much emphasis on the lack of mental health facilities, yet so oppose laws taking guns away from the insane?”

So I called a couple of friends who are practicing, board certified, psychologists. One is the only doctor in a State institution. He can schedule 120 20 minute interviews in a 30 hour week, and has almost 1,200 institutionalized and outpatients patients, so you should be able to see that oonly a fe2w patients get ade attention from any psychologist.

In California, the “norm” to which psychologists and psychiatrists should examine patients is one appointment per year.

And there are worse situations. Newtown killer Adam Lanza supposedly plotted to to Norway’s Anders Behring Brevik’s total, but he only made about a third of Breivik’s total. Lanza’s increasingly desperate mother was ssearching for a “sanitorium” outside Connecticut when Adam murdered here, stone her guns, and the rest you know.

Auroora theater killer James Holmes is another similar case. His psychologist tried to get him coommitted but there were no beds available. And there still are no beds available.

Jared Loughner, who shot Rep. Gabrielle Giffords. When the Sheriffs office tried to have him evaluated, there was no time slot available.

And the list goes on and on and on. Insufficient capacity and insufficient funding is a double whammy that endangers everyone.

But on the other hand, a youngish lady who suffered disorientation after her doctor recommended changing from one Serotonin Re uptake Inhibitor to another and committed herself is not a danger to the community. Sending Officers to steal her guns i should without allowing her the due process guaranteed by our Constitution
be a crime in itself.

So the answer is simple enough. We support adequate mental health care. The system we have is not adequate, it is not professional, and the dedicated professionals who could make far more using their talents have “learned to move moountains with a spoon.”

But on the other hand, we oppose useless laws intended to harass the competent and law abiding.

So yes, let’s take the criminally insane off our streets. But let’s do it without denying them their right of due process, their right to have their case heard by a judge, and by all means keep the state’s crasping paws off those who are having a common and temporary problem.



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Nebraska: The Cost Of Gun Control

Our next State in this the “Cost of Gun Control” is
Nebraska, beautiful, well armed, and generally a ow crime – except for Omaha – and very prosperous State.

However, before we look at the results and costs of gun control, we have a few “fine print” items to take care of, starting with the source of crime or this post.

The primary source of data is the FBI’s Uniform Crime reporte, issued annually. Many police headquarters have the back issues, or at this convenient spreadsheet maintained by the Disaster Center.

Nebraska requires State permission to buy a handgun, is a “shall issue License To Carry” State, and has preempted local gun laws – except they only thought they did. There is apparently no individual penalty so Omaha sits over on the east ned of the State with its own deck of gun laws – thumbing its nose at the State. Tje cro,e rates sjpw the resit;ts. As we;;/

Omaha has 24 percent of the State’s population, 448 of Nebraska’s 82 homicides, and 663 of Nebraska’s 994 reported robberies.

In 1960 Nebraska reported 33 murders, 15 firearms related for a 45.5 percent firearms related murder rate. In Nebraska authorities reported 61 murders, 43 of those firearms related for a 70.5 percent firearms related murder rate. As with other U.S. States, the percentage of victims quickly rose after the start of the entertainment industry’s gun ban campaign, and was near 70 oercebt ub 1968.

Turning now to the intent of this series of 51 posts is to 51 posts is to first, estimate the overall dollar cost of gun control to each of the States, and to the District of Columbia.

Working our way to the crime numbers, in 1960 Nebraska Law enforcement agencies reported 189 homicides, of which 82 or 42 percent were firearms related. In 2015, Nebraska Agencies reported 499 murders to the FBI, 418 or 84 percent were firearms related. The percentage of firearms related homicides began to increase in 1963, at the same time the entertainment industry’s gun ban campaign kicked off and was very close to 80 percent within 5 years.

Economically Nebraska is a showcase for the concept that hig crime minorities become law abiding with jobs and income security. Nebraska is 94..5% white and low crime minorities, 5.5 percent high crime minorities, Since Nebraska’s unemployment rate is around 3% and the “out of job market” numbers are quite low, and the incidence of gun ownership is high, crime rates are low.

Nebraska ranks 224th for individual and family income at $54,000 a year, With a relati9vely high percentage of the work force no longer actively looking for work.

With that, it is time to look at Nebraska’s historic crime numbers and how tho incidence of crime varied with gun control campaigns and laws.

1960 when gun control was largely unheard of, Nebraska’s Law Enforcement Agencies reported 590 violent crimes to the FBI,

10963,the year the entertainment industry began a nationwide gun ban campaign; Nebraska LEA’s reported 2,1031 violent crimes to the FBI.

1964,the first full year of Hollywood’s gun ban campaign, Nebraska’s Law Enforcement Agencies reported 7766 violent crimes to the FBI.

1968, the fifth full year of Hollywood’s gun ban campaign,p campaign, and the first two weeks of the Federal Gun Control Act of 588 Nebraska LEA’s reported 2,103 violent crimes to the FBI.

1969, the first full year of Federal gun controls Nebraska LEA’s reported 2,302 violent crimes to the FBI as “sports related” school fights declined.

1973, the fifth full year of Federal gun controls, which agencies reported 2,859 violent crimes to the FBI.

194, the first full year of Handgun Control, Inc.’s “Assault Weapons Ban” campaign ws at its most intense, Nebraska’s LEA’s reported 6,071 violent crimes to the FBI; 4,548 of those aggravated assaults, and as in Montana most seem to be pecking order and “puppy love” fights.

Which brings us to the chart below, which is misleading in that it includes a massive increase in the “aggravated assault rate,” apparently pecking order fights from media reports, but in no other crime.

In 2015, the latest year data is currently available, Nebraska LEA’s reported 3,611 violent crimes, of which 2,818 were aggravated assaults. Meaning aggravated assaults which normally constitution about half of all violent crimes, made up 74^ if Nebraska’s 2015 violent crimes.

It is easy to see that trend, and the numbers are at the link in the first few paragraphs::

You can see in the chart below, Nebraska’s violent crime rates declined after Nebraska’s gun owners came to realize the ANTI’s were and are serous about banning guns, and started buying defensive weapons. The increased risk persuaded many to stick to property cirme, or find a safer occupation.

As you can also see, Nebraska’s violent crime and homicide rates rose and fell in lockstep with State and Federal gun controls and gun control campaigns.

Nebraska ended a 30 year decline in crime rates in 1963, when the entertainment industry began a campaign to prtect “properties,” movies, they had “in the can,” by banning “the real cause of rising juvenile crime rates, guns.

The little notch you can see in 1967 is a result of a change of Chief Law Enforcement Officers and several Counties in Nebraska failing to report crimes, but the FBI made it clear complete ignore was expected, or else.

Violent crime continued to rise until 1973, fell briefly when ammunition purchaser registration was repealed, rose again with Handgun Control, Inc’s “Assault Weapons Ban campaign, and fell sharply after Nebraska’s CCW permit system went in, and a few criminals had their careers stopped by hot lead fever.

The probability that all the states so far examined are very small. So small we do not have numbers, and pc’s refuse tp ca;ci;ate tjat small probability, approximately 1 in 14.3*10^770. a number so large we do not have names for them.

With that, it is time to examine what gun control has cost Nebraska.

Looking at Nebraska’s mean family income, the U6 unemployment rate, “out of workforce,” mean family income, and demographic numbers, along with the effects of Nebraska’s somewhat restrictive gun laws, Nebraska should have a current violent crime and homicide rates of 445 and 10.1 per 100,000 population, and actually beats the calculations slightly. But the official rate for 2015 was 275.8 and 8.7 during a gun control campaign, it is clear that “heavily armed” Nebraska’s crime rates are well below the norm.

If you look at the rise in violent crime in the chart above, and homicide in the chart below, it is quite clear that Nebraska, like the other States examined in detail that while “puppy love” and “Pecking order” fistfights are still a common cause of aggravated assault, the rise in the use of deadly weapons associated with gun controls is the driving factor behind the chart below.

In common with the other relatively low population States that did not bother “fixing what was not broken” with draconian gun laws, Nebraska’ homicide rate clearly shows the effect of Hollywood’s gun ban campaigns and Federal gun laws.

Before the entertainment industry’s gun ban campaign, which began on November 3330, 21063, there were only a few places where aggravated assault percentages ran much above 40 percent of all violent crimes. By 1968, the first year of Federal gun controls, aggravated assault surged to over half of all violent crimes.

In 20155, Nebraska’s law enforcement agencies reported 5,201 violent crimes to the FBI. 3,283 of those were aggravated assaults. Of those 1,212 involved guns or blades, 8889 fists and feet, and 987 other weapons.

Clearlly, then gun control has pushed Nebraska’s aggravated aassault numbers out of sight as gun control laws have pushed aggravated assault numbers to even greater heights than the other components of violent crime.

However, the dominant feature is random statistical variations called “noise” that cause wild year to year swings in the homicide rate. In 1960, a change of just 6 murders would have changed the homicide rate by a full point; with a decline from 26 to 19 resulting in a change from 3.9 per 100,000 to only 2.9, and a similar change to 4.9 with a rise from 26 to 33.

However, even with Nebraska’s very low crime rates compared to other States, the pattern is clear.

Nebraska ended a 33 year decline in crime rates when the entertainment industry began a gun ban campaign in 1953, and snce then the crime rates have risen and fallen in lockstep with gun control laws and campaigns.

Except for the sharp rise in aggravated assault, which may actually be due to a loss of eligible women to California colleges, resulting in more competition for the ladies who remained in Nebraska, I am may have a germ of truth.

Obviously, then gun control is the primary cause of the higher crime rates observed since 196. While we cannot put a price tag on grief, suffering, loneliness, loss of companionship, the pain of being orphaned, and other intangible costs of gun control, those costs are substantial.

But gun control has exacted a terrible price from Nebraska’s law abiding as crime rates soared, including all categories of property as well as violent crime, rising and falling in lockstep with the rest of the States in response to to gun control campaigns and gun control laws. A rise with a definite financial cost shared by every resident affected by those proposed and effectuated laws.

There is no accepted price for a lifetime of grief, but at the mean $2,200,000 judgement for wrongful death for each additional homicide victim, $41,600 ,for treatment of every additional shooting victim, lost wages, lost companionship,the scars of losing a parent or other close relative, including a spouse, , disability payments, the cost of excess goods destroyed,damaged or disappeared, along with the additional costs of security, law enforcement, and prisons the total calculable cost of Nebraska’s gun control legislation is in excess of $32,700,000,000, spread over 54 years.

It is abundantly clear Nebraska’s misguided package of State, plus Federal, gun laws have cost Nebraska far more than any State should be asked to pay.

It is time for Congress to do its duty and preempt all State and local restrictions, limiting those restrictions to the imposed by current federal law, and imposing a reasonable daily penalty of at least $3100,000 a day on any individual seeking to enforce preempted legislation, or craft new laws to evade Federal limits.

To fail to do so is a form of dereliction of duty. So 40 years late in preemption is a definite case of avoiding a clear and present danger to our society.


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