UPDATEThe FBI’s Preliminary Uniform Crime Report for 2011 indicates homicides were down 1.9 percent compared to 2010. That would give a calculated homicide rate of 4.6 per 100,000 population and a preliminary estimate of 14,468 homicides for 2011.END UPDATE
Someone came by searching for “us murder rate 2011.” At just over a month into the year it would take a seer to predict that with any great confidence. And my crystal ball is broken.
We can say with some confidence that the “official homicide rate” for 2010 will be either 4.6 or 4.7 homicides per 100,000 population when the final numbers are released in September.
We know several major gun control cities homicide totals are trending up. Those cities include Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Chicago. What effect that will have on the 2011 is unknown.
The rest of the United States seems to be generally “flat or down.” That may be enough to continue the long term decline in homicide and violent crime rates associated with the voluntary rearming of the United States civilian population.
And that leaves the snake in the grass factor. What will the effect of the media’s gun control efforts after the mass murder at Tucson. That is also unknown.
My guess is that if the media campaign fades from sight before the snow does, the effect will be minimal. If that is the case, 2011′s homicide rates should be in the 4.5-4.6 range at the end of the year. But if the media’s attempts to bring in draconian gun controls, the homicide rates will rise again. Just as they have during and after every other gun control drive.