Someone stopped by the Alley searching for “how much does carrying a gun increase the risk of being shot.”
For one small subset of Americans, those who have adopted a criminal lifestyle, there is a sharply increased risk of being shot if you carry. “Conventional Wisdom” has it that 73 percent or more of homicides are criminal on criminal murders; where the murderer and his victim are either partners or rivals in some criminal enterprise.
For “gun control” cities like Chicago and New York, as well as “gun hostile” cities such as Philadelphia, the criminal on criminal homicide percentage is very much higher than the national average.
Most of the criminals who are shot and killed each year carry a gun at least part of the time. So there is a very limited amount of truth to the statement that you are more likely to be shot if you carry.
Those who lawfully carry have a risk of being shot that is far below the American norm. With some eight million Americans licensed to carry and another two million who need no permit to carry, the incidence is just under 0.5 per 100,000 persons, or five per million per year among those who carry a gun regularly.
The incidence of being shot as a result of criminal violence among the general population is 15.2 per 100,000, and the incidence among criminals runs as high as 8 out of ten. As the latest “official DOJ” graphic above shows, (click on the chart for a clearer view), a very high percentage of Federal and State prisoners have been shot at. In the almost twenty years since that graphic was released, the percentage of State prisoners who have been shot has risen sharply, to 48.4% according to one an academic survey.
Yet at the same time, the overall number of homicides has declined by some 6,000 a year, the population has grown by almost 50 million, and the number of Concealed Weapons permit holders has increased by more than six million.
And the bottom line is? If you are not a criminal, do not beat your wife or in-laws, pay your gambling debts or do not make any, and otherwise behave like a solid citizen you are unlikely to be shot. If you carry, you are far less likely to be shot. Or to become a victim of some other crime.