6 October Hurricane Watch

There are now two systems in the Atlantic Basin,

The new chum is a tropical disturbance far out in the Atlantic, as close to Greenland as the U.S.. The chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days is give as 30, and movement seems expected to be toward the Azores. There seems to be little immediate danger from this system, and there will be time to act if it does threaten with something serous.

Tropical Storm Nick, soon to be Hurricane Nick, is the second sysstem, and is approaching the Yucatan Penensula. The current This one has the wrong name, it should have been Uncertain. However,c current forecasts have Nick striking somewhere between Houston and Apalachicola, with a mossst likely landfall forecast of Morgan City, Louisianan, southwest of New Orleans. From 60 years of watching I expect the track to shift slightly, with landfall between New Orleans and Mobile, but expectation is not reality. If you have interests on or near the Gulf of Mexico and between Brownsville and Naples, keep an eye on this one. The Gulf is very warm, and things can blow up in a hurry.

And if you were headed west across the Pacific, the nerest tropical storm seems to be an unnamed tropical depressoin off the Azores.

And that seems the tropical crop for this morning.


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